Björn Bartling, Leif Brandes, Daniel Schunk, “Expectations as Reference
Points: Field Evidence from Professional Soccer.” Management Science
61(11): 2646-2661, 2015; working paper version (pdf) here.
• Do soccer teams play differently, and less “rationally,” when they are in the loss domain relative to expectations?
• Betting odds give a measure of expectations for match outcomes in professional soccer; so, we can test if teams play differently, and less rationally, when they are in the loss domain (performing worse than expected).
• Indicators are the numbers of yellow cards and red cards, as well as substitution patterns.
• The rationality of any changed behaviors in the loss domain can be checked by how final outcomes are influenced.
•If a team that is favored is behind, they are in the loss domain. These teams receive more cards (by 14%), and their coaches make more offensively-minded substitutions (by a large margin), than if the game situation were the same but the team was not in the loss domain.
• Both the additional cards and the increase in offensive substitutions seem to lead to worse outcomes for teams.
• The additional cards when a team is in the loss domain tend to be related to frustration-style events, such as dissent or violent conduct. The loss domain is psychologically more challenging and this leads to worsened decision making.
• Do soccer teams play differently, and less “rationally,” when they are in the loss domain relative to expectations?
• Betting odds give a measure of expectations for match outcomes in professional soccer; so, we can test if teams play differently, and less rationally, when they are in the loss domain (performing worse than expected).
• Indicators are the numbers of yellow cards and red cards, as well as substitution patterns.
• The rationality of any changed behaviors in the loss domain can be checked by how final outcomes are influenced.
•If a team that is favored is behind, they are in the loss domain. These teams receive more cards (by 14%), and their coaches make more offensively-minded substitutions (by a large margin), than if the game situation were the same but the team was not in the loss domain.
• Both the additional cards and the increase in offensive substitutions seem to lead to worse outcomes for teams.
• The additional cards when a team is in the loss domain tend to be related to frustration-style events, such as dissent or violent conduct. The loss domain is psychologically more challenging and this leads to worsened decision making.
• For more on reference points and soccer, see the BEO post on the Dickson, Jennings, and Koop (2016) analysis of Domestic Violence and Glaswegian Football.
No comments:
Post a Comment