Dickson, Jennings, and Koop (2016) on Domestic Violence and Glaswegian Football

Alex Dickson, Colin Jennings, and Gary Koop, “Domestic Violence and Football in Glasgow: Are Reference Points Relevant?” Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 78(1): 1-21, 2016 (pdf).

• Football matches can provide emotional cues that might spur domestic violence; in particular, an unexpected loss might lead to more violent incidents. Such was the finding from a 2011 article that examined some American football games, where betting odds provided the reference point for outcome expectations. 

• Dickson, Jennings, and Koop examine the Scottish Premiership (soccer), and domestic violence in the Glasgow area from January 2003 until October 2011. Two long-term and fierce rivals, Celtic and Rangers, are based in Glasgow. Together, they are referred to as the “Old Firm.” 

• Old Firm matches (that do not have extremely “unexpected” outcomes as the rivals are always competitive with each other) are associated with increased domestic violence (by some 36%); other Scottish Premiership matches, not so. (Another event that brings a significant increase in domestic violence is the Christmas/New Year’s holiday.) 

• Unexpected outcomes only are correlated with increased domestic violence for a restricted set of matches that are very important in terms of final league standings. That is, football-related loss aversion is not generally a big deal for Glaswegian domestic violence.