Sayette et al. (2008), “Exploring the Cold-to-Hot Empathy Gap in Smokers.”

Michael A. Sayette, George Loewenstein, Kasey M. Griffin, and Jessica J. Black, “Exploring the Cold-to-Hot Empathy Gap in Smokers.” Psychological Science 19: 926-932, 2008.

• The cold-to-hot empathy gap is the notion that people (when in the cold state) underestimate the extent to which visceral factors will impact their future decisions (made in the hot state). 

• The experimental set-up: smokers know that at the next gathering they will be in a craving state. They are asked to precommit to a willingness to pay (wtp) to accept craving (in the form of delayed access to a smoke). Some participants are asked for this wtp when they are craving, and others are asked when they aren’t. 

• In session 2, now with everyone in the hot state (craving), they are given a chance to revise their wtp. 

• Results: people in the cold state in the first session revise upward their wtp in the second session: they seem to suffer from a cold-to-hot empathy gap. The cold group also seems to underpredict the depth of their future cravings.