Sunday, October 25, 2015

Kahneman (2011), Chapter 11, “Anchors”

Daniel Kahneman, “Anchors.” Chapter 11, pages 119-128, in Thinking, Fast and Slow, New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011.

• Anchoring occurs when a person considers one number, before estimating another, unknown number. The estimate will tend to stay close to the original number considered, even if that original number is known to be completely unrelated to the estimated quantity. 

• Anchoring might result from two (separate?) mechanisms. One is priming, the power of suggestion, which works on our rapid responses (“System 1”); the second is when we deliberate (“System 2”) over the estimate by adjusting away from the anchor, but do not adjust sufficiently. 

• The asking price for a house can be a form of anchor – one that affects professional real estate agents as well as amateurs. The amount of damages requested in a civil suit also might serve as an anchor. Further, legislated maxima (caps) on damage awards might serve as an anchor, drawing upwards what otherwise might have been smaller awards. 

• Instructions to deliberately counter the anchor can be effective.

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